Two-dimensional Pareto frontier forecasting for technology planning and roadmapping

Ilya Yuskevich, Rob Vingerhoeds, Alessandro Golkar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Technology evolution forecasting based on historical data processing is a useful tool for quantitative analysis in technology planning and roadmapping. While previous efforts focused mainly on one-dimensional forecasting, real technical systems require the evaluation of multiple and conflicting figures of merit at the same time, such as cost and performance. This paper presents a methodology for technology forecasting based on Pareto (efficient) frontier estimation algorithms and multiple regressions in presence of at least two conflicting figures of merits. A tool was developed on the basis of the approach presented in this paper. The methodology is illustrated with a case study from the automotive industry. The paper also shows the validation of the methodology and the estimation of the forecast accuracy adopting a backward testing procedure.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018 - Proceedings
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages1-7
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9781538636640
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 May 2018
Event12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018 - Vancouver, Canada
Duration: 24 Apr 201826 Apr 2018

Publication series

Name12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018 - Proceedings

Conference

Conference12th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2018
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityVancouver
Period24/04/1826/04/18

Keywords

  • Pareto frontiers
  • Technology forecasting
  • Technology planning
  • Trend extrapolation

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