Some Challenges of Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting and Possible Solutions

V. G. Bondur, M. B. Gokhberg, I. A. Garagash, D. A. Alekseev

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Abstract: We discuss the reasons behind the lack of efficiency of geodetic monitoring aimed at short-term forecasting of strong earthquakes. Based on the results from geomechanical monitoring in Southern California, it is shown that the strain observed at the Earth’s surface is significantly lower compared to deeper layers of the Earth’s crust (where most seismic events occur) and does not exceed the background level. We discuss some approaches that allow monitoring of deep strains using detailed geomechanical models and remote sensing methods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)910-913
Number of pages4
JournalDoklady Earth Sciences
Volume495
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2020
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • earthquake forecast
  • earthquakes
  • geomechanical model
  • Southern California
  • strain observations
  • stress–strain state

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