Multifactor forecasting of socioeconomic development of regions

Galina Yurievna Gagarina, Gleb Vladimirovich Ryzhakov, Natalia Yurievna Sorokina, Liliya Nikolaevna Chaynikova, Darina Alexandrovna Sizova

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The goal of the article is to develop an economic and mathematical model allowing to predict the nature of the socioeconomic development of the Russian regions, with due consideration for the most significant factors that determine its dynamics. An algorithm has been proposed for predicting the growth rate of the gross regional product, including justification of the factors that have both positive and negative impacts on this indicator, as well as the procedure for generating forecast estimates using the Wolfram Mathematica 11 kit. A forecast model of the socioeconomic development of the Lipetsk region, one of the backbone regions in Russia, has been formed. The statistical indicators of the region under study for 2004 – 2017 have been analyzed. The forecast data have been interpreted. The negative factors hindering the further development of the Lipetsk region have been highlighted. The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy, as well as state and regional programs aimed at ensuring and enhancing the sustainability of the socioeconomic development of the Lipetsk region.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5570-5576
Number of pages7
JournalInternational Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Economic and mathematical model
  • Forecasting
  • Region
  • Sustainable socioeconomic development

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