Mixability of integral losses: A key to efficient online aggregation of functional and probabilistic forecasts

Alexander Korotin, Vladimir V'yugin, Evgeny Burnaev

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this paper we extend the setting of the online prediction with expert advice to function-valued forecasts. At each step of the online game several experts predict a function, and the learner has to efficiently aggregate these functional forecasts into a single forecast. We adapt basic mixable (and exponentially concave) loss functions to compare functional predictions and prove that these adaptations are also mixable (exp-concave). We call this phenomenon mixability (exp-concavity) of integral loss functions. As an application of our main result, we prove that various loss functions used for probabilistic forecasting are mixable (exp-concave). The considered losses include Sliced Continuous Ranked Probability Score, Energy-Based Distance, Optimal Transport Costs & Sliced Wasserstein-2 distance, Beta-2 & Kullback-Leibler divergences, Characteristic function and Maximum Mean Discrepancies.

Original languageEnglish
Article number108175
JournalPattern Recognition
Volume120
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2021

Keywords

  • Exponential concavity
  • Functional forecasting
  • Integral loss functions
  • Mixability
  • Prediction with expert advice
  • Probabilistic forecasting

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