Implications of an inverse branching aftershock sequence model

D. L. Turcotte, S. G. Abaimov, I. Dobson, J. B. Rundle

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The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model is a self-similar statistical model for earthquake aftershock sequences. A prescribed parent earthquake generates a first generation of daughter aftershocks. The magnitudes and times of occurrence of the daughters are obtained from statistical distributions. The first generation daughter aftershocks then become parent earthquakes that generate second generation aftershocks. The process is then extended to higher generations. The key parameter in the BASS model is the magnitude difference Δ m* between the parent earthquake and the largest expected daughter earthquake. In the application of the BASS model to aftershocks Δ m* is positive, the largest expected daughter event is smaller than the parent, and the sequence of events (aftershocks) usually dies out, but an exponential growth in the number of events with time is also possible. In this paper we explore this behavior of the BASS model as Δ m* varies, including when Δ m* is negative and the largest expected daughter event is larger than the parent. The applications of this self-similar branching process to biology and other fields are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Article number016101
JournalPhysical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 5 Jan 2009
Externally publishedYes


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