Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

Tatiana Podladchikova, Anatoly Petrukovich, Yuri Yermolaev

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    8 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011- 2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of realtime input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article numberA22
    JournalJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate
    Volume8
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018

    Keywords

    • Forecasting
    • Magnetic field
    • Solar wind
    • Storm
    • Validation

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