Analysis of uncertainties in assessing the contribution of different greenhouse gas emissions to global warming

M. Ya Antonovskii, V. M. Bukhshtaber, V. A. Pivovarov

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1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper deals with basic issues of global greenhouse effect whose solution depends on global warming potential (GWP) assessments and on data on greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Principal factors responsible for uncertainties in the GWP(i) determination are analyzed. These are: greenhouse gas lifetime, the selection of a reference model of the global carbon cycle and a time horizon for assessing the GWP(i), and a complete list of greenhouse gases. The effect of these factors is assessed from data on Final Documents of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The dependence of the assessment of the contribution of the i-th greenhouse gas to the radiative forcing on the difference in the GWP(i) assessment and incomplete data on its anthropogenic emission is investigated. The way to solve the problem of a rational, from the viewpoint of a sustainable socioeconomic development, fulfillment of the commitments on limitation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is considered.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)44-52
Number of pages9
JournalRussian Meteorology and Hydrology
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 1998
Externally publishedYes

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